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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper low is expected to be centered near the Montana/Alberta
border early D4/Friday. This low is expected to open up as it
beco*es more progressive, moving eastward across southern
Saskatchewan and the northern High Plains on D4/Friday. This system
will then trend more northeastward as it moves across southern
Manitoba on D5/Saturday. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this
shortwave across the northern High Plains on D4/Friday as low-level
moisture and associated buoyancy return northward amid persistent
southerly/southeasterly flow

Thunderstorms are also possible across the Upper Midwest on
D5/Saturday, as a convectively induced shortwave trough interacts
with the moist airmass over the region. Storm severity will likely
be tempered by modest vertical shear and a preponderance of elevated
storms.

Upper pattern is forecast to trend more zonal this weekend as the
eastern CONUS troughing loses amplitude. The persistent ridging over
the Southwest will dampen as a series of shortwave troughs traverse
its northern periphery. Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity
of these waves, but the stronger flow aloft will remain displaced
north across southern Canada, liming the severe potential. This
zonal pattern may be short-lived, with upper ridging expected to
build back across much of the CONUS early next week.