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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A strong thunderstorm or two is possible across the northern High
Plains on Thursday, but the organized severe-thunderstorm threat
appears relatively low at this time.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging is forecast to be centered over the Four Corners early
Thursday. Some dampening of this ridging is anticipated throughout
the day as a slow-moving upper low moves through the northern
Rockies. Thunderstorms are anticipated across the northern High
Plains as this upper low interacts with the moist air mass over the
region. Guidance varies on the strength of the mid-level flow
attendant to this low, but a few strong to severe storms could
develop if the stronger solution materializes. Confidence is too low
to outlook an area with this forecast.

Thunderstorms are also possible ahead of weak front across the Mid
MS Valley, within the monsoonal moisture still in place across the
Southwest and central Rockies, and in the vicinity of subtle upper
low and associated surface low over the Southeast. In each of these
region, weak vertical shear should keep the severe threat low.

..Mosier.. 08/23/2022