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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across the northern Rockies,
northern High Plains, Upper Midwest, and Arizona on Wednesday, but
the organized severe-thunderstorm threat appears relatively low at
this time.

...Northern Rockies...
Persistent upper ridging is forecast to remain centered over the
Four Corners region on Wednesday, while an upper low remains largely
stationary over the Pacific Northwest. A subtle shortwave trough is
expected to move northeastward in the corridor between the upper
ridging and upper low, moving across southern ID into southwest MT
Wednesday afternoon. Lift attendant to this shortwave will
contribute to scattered thunderstorm development as it interacts
with the moist and buoyant air mass over the northern Rockies. A
strong storm or two is possible, but weak vertical shear should keep
the overall severe potential low.

...Northern High Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A surface low is expected to be centered near the SD/MN border early
Wednesday morning, before gradually moving eastward across southern
MN throughout the day. As it does, a cold front will move southward
into NE, with some low-level easterly/upslope flow into the northern
High Plains in its wake. Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated
across southern MN, northern/central IA, and eastern NE along the
cold front. Weak vertical shear will temper the severe potential. 

Some additional thunderstorm development is possible back over
eastern WY, where low-level convergence between the post-frontal
easterly flow and the lee trough is maximized. Vertical shear will
be slightly stronger here co*pared to areas farther east, largely as
a result of low-level easterly flow veering to northwesterly aloft.
However, instability will be modest and guidance is inconsistent
with initiation location. As such, forecast confidence regarding
severe coverage is too low to introduce any probabilities with this
outlook.

...Central/Southern AZ...
Vertical shear will be weak, but thunderstorms are expected to move
off the terrain into the lower desert during the afternoon and
evening. A strong gust or two may occur, but the generally weak
mid-level easterly flow suggests limited severe potential.

...Southeast...
A convectively augmented shortwave trough and attendant surface low
will continue to slowly drift eastward across the Southeast states,
with numerous thunderstorms expected over the region throughout the
day. Guidance varies on the strength of the mid-level flow within
the eastern periphery of this shortwave. If the stronger solutions
verify, some risk for a brief tornado may materialize. However, this
variance introduces too much uncertainty for an outlook area.

..Mosier.. 08/23/2022