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Mesoscale Discussion 1713
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 222010Z - 222245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds may occur with thunderstorms
this afternoon and early evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been slow to intensify this
afternoon to the east of a surface cold front across the
Mid-Atlantic. Poor mid-level lapse rates noted on area 12Z soundings
and persistent cloud cover earlier today, which delayed diurnal
heating, are likely responsible for the lack of stronger updrafts so
far. Even with these limiting factors, a pocket of 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE has developed along/east of the higher terrain in VA/MD and
eastern PA into NJ. Deep-layer shear will remain weak and generally
less than 30 kt, as modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow
associated with an upper trough persists over the Mid-Atlantic.
Current expectations are for the ongoing convection to pose a rather
isolated threat for strong/gusty winds through the rest of the
afternoon as it moves slowly eastward. The lack of stronger
deep-layer shear will likely limit the overall threat for
severe/damaging winds and convective organization, and watch
issuance is not anticipated.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 08/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   36657858 36927950 38277891 40107743 41547604 41467545
            41147448 40767381 40577383 39327568 37667720 36657858