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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will continue this evening
across portions of Arizona, and into southeastern Nevada and
possibly a portion of southeastern California.  A stronger storm or
two will also remain possible this evening across parts of the
central Appalachians area, and over portions of North Texas.

...Parts of Arizona and into adjacent southern Nevada/southeastern
California...
A few strong/severe storms continue at this time from southeastern
Nevada eastward into northwestern Arizona.  With moderate
instability across this area, and low-level flow veering from
southerly to northerly with height, supercell characteristics have
been noted over the past 1 to 2 hours with the strongest cells. 
Large hail and locally damaging winds will remain possible as these
storms shift southward this evening.

Meanwhile, other storms ongoing near the Mogollon Rim appear to be
loosely organizing into a band, that is propagating
south-southwestward toward the lower deserts.  Here also, with
moderate CAPE ahead of the storms, and a wind profile supportive not
only of updraft organization but also a continued
south-southwestward progression, risk for locally damaging wind
gusts will persist through the evening.

...Elsewhere...
Thunderstorms continue from portions of Ohio/Pennsylvania southward
to the Tennessee Valley and Carolinas.  However, storms have
diminished in intensity over the past couple of hours, and should
remain largely below severe levels the remainder of the period.

Thunderstorm are also ongoing across portions of Texas, but here
also, the CAPE/shear parameter space suggests little potential for
severe weather the rest of the period.

..Goss.. 08/22/2022