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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY...AND GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across
parts of the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley, Midwest/Ohio
Valley, and Great Lakes. Occasional damaging winds and marginally
severe hail should be the main threats.

...Ozarks into the Mid Mississippi Valley, Midwest/Ohio Valley, and
Great Lakes...
A closed mid/upper-level cyclone over the Upper Midwest Saturday
morning should devolve into a positively tilted trough as it moves
slowly eastward across the Midwest, Great Lakes, and mid MS Valley
through the period. A weak surface low associated with the upper
trough should likewise move slowly eastward across IA and vicinity
through early Saturday evening. A cold front attendant to the
surface low is forecast to progress east-southeastward across parts
of the Midwest, mid MS Valley, and central/southern Plains.

A seasonably moist low-level airmass characterized by generally low
to mid 60s surface dewpoints is forecast to be in place ahead of the
front. Filtered diurnal heating should aid in the development of
weak to moderate instability across these regions by Saturday
afternoon. With mid-level west-southwesterly winds across the warm
sector expected to mostly range around 25-35 kt, deep-layer shear
should remain fairly muted. Still, similar values of effective bulk
shear will probably allow for some convective organization.

It appears that weak ascent associated with the upper trough/low,
and modest low-level convergence along the front and pre-frontal
confluence zones, will encourage multiple bands of loosely organized
convection to develop Saturday afternoon and continue through the
evening. Multicells capable of producing isolated damaging winds
should be the main threat as these thunderstorms spread generally
eastward. Some marginally severe hail also appears possible with the
strongest cores given the moderate instability forecast and
deep-layer shear up to 35 kt, which may support transient supercell
structures.

The Marginal Risk for wind/hail has been expanded eastward based on
latest guidance trends to include more of the Midwest/OH Valley and
parts of the southern Great Lakes region. Some consideration was
given for including even more of the OH Valley into the TN Valley in
low severe wind probabilities, but deep-layer shear should decrease
with southward extent across these areas. This limits confidence in
how organized convection will be, so opted to not draw an even
broader Marginal Risk at this time.

..Gleason.. 08/19/2022