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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST
TEXAS/ARKLATEX TO THE GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms may beco*e severe this afternoon from eastern Texas
across the Gulf Coast states, with locally damaging wind gusts
possible.

...East Texas/Arklatex to Gulf Coast/northern Florida...
Storms are ongoing this morning near and north of the front from
Arkansas into northern Mississippi/central Alabama, with lift
enhanced by modest warm advection from the west at 850 mb. Strong
heating near/south of the front will result in a transition to
surface-based storms into this afternoon.

It appears that the co*posite front/outflow boundary will
continually undercut the developing storms, and it is unclear how
quickly new cells will regenerate for propagation. Regardless, at
least isolated strong to severe gusts appear likely given
afternoon-maximized steep low-level lapse rates and the expected
storm aggregation. Small areas of storms may persist this evening,
but any wind threat is expected to diminish after sunset.

...Western Dakota and far eastern Montana/northeast Wyoming...
A few stronger storms may materialize this afternoon/early evening
near a front/pre-frontal trough. Some thunderstorm-related
strong/gusty winds could occur, but severe probabilities do not
currently appear warranted given the relatively modest buoyancy by
summertime standards.

...Southern Arizona...
A west/northwestward-moving mid-level impulse and heating over the
higher terrain will contribute to diurnally maximized thunderstorm
development, some of which may propagate to the desert floor aided
by a modest strengthening of mid-level easterlies. The region will
be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a potential inclusion of
wind-related probabilities.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 08/17/2022