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Mesoscale Discussion 1688
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Areas affected...portions of southeast Colorado into northeast New
Mexico...northern Texas Panhandle...Oklahoma Panhandle...western
into central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 162154Z - 170030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts may acco*pany the stronger storms
near the cold front. The severe threat should remain fairly isolated
and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A surface cold front continues to sag slowly southward
across the southern Plains, preceded by a deep, dry, well-mixed
boundary layer. South of the cold front and north of a cirrus deck
(north of the Red River), surface temperatures are exceeding 100 F
in spots, overspread by 8-10 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates (per 21z
mesoanalysis) amid weak deep-layer shear. This
thermodynamic/kinematic environment supports isolated severe gusts
with stronger storms over two regions. The first would be with
ongoing storms that are increasing in number and intensity along the
NM/CO border, which may congeal via cold-pool mergers and propagate
into the OK/TX Panhandles. The second area for a couple of severe
gusts would be with pulse cellular storms ahead of the cold front
over western into central OK, though storms should remain isolated
this afternoon into the evening hours.

..Squitieri/Edwards.. 08/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37710458 38090452 38160437 38230433 38280389 38260293
            38170239 37970201 37500171 36930087 36519933 36909745
            37149664 37049594 36449553 35589550 35189580 34749654
            34519745 34449862 34439984 34470078 34710180 35050264
            35590334 36180392 36600434 37710458