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Mesoscale Discussion 1687
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Areas affected...east-central MS...southwest AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 161906Z - 162100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated gusts 45-60 mph associated with wet microbursts
will be capable of pockets of wind damage.  The localized nature of
the wind-damage risk will preclude a severe thunderstorm watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus
field from central MS southeastward into southwest AL.  A few
thunderstorms have recently developed within a very moist/unstable
airmass.  RAP forecast soundings indicated around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE
is present from central MS into southwest AL and PW ranges 1.8-1.9
inches.  Surface temperatures have warmed into the low-mid 90s with
upper 70s dewpoints.  Given the strong heating through early
afternoon, 0-3 km lapse rates have steepened and are now in excess
of 8 deg C/km.  Expecting widely scattered thunderstorm coverage by
mid-late afternoon from parts of central MS into southwest AL. 
Water-loaded downdrafts will contribute to a localized microburst
risk and associated gusts 45-60 mph with acco*panying tree damage.

..Smith/Thompson.. 08/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   32848915 31588757 31198755 30928781 31008834 32348963
            32718960 32848915