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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly
wind damage appear possible Wednesday across parts of the Southeast.

...Southeast...

An upper low over the Northeast and its attendant trough extending
across much of the eastern half of the CONUS will persist on
Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop
southward across the southern Plains and much of the Deep South. The
cold front will be a focus for thunderstorm development through the
afternoon/evening. Some of these storms may be strong to severe,
mainly posing a threat for damaging gusts. 

West/northwesterly deep-layer flow will remain modest on the
southern periphery of the upper trough, though 20-35 kt of flow
above 750 mb will support sufficient effective shear magnitudes for
some storm organization. Weaker low-level winds and PW values near 2
inches amid 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will support water loaded
downdrafts capable of producing strong/isolated severe gusts. The
overall severe threat should diminish after sunset with loss of
daytime heating and increasing boundary-layering inhibition.

..Leitman.. 08/16/2022