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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
OZARKS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER...SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of
the Ozarks into the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon. A few
strong/severe thunderstorms may also occur across eastern North
Dakota/northern Minnesota and over the south-central High Plains.
Damaging winds should be the main threat, but some hail may also
occur.

...Ozarks to Lower Mississippi Valley/Middle Gulf Coast...
Prevalent early day convection across Missouri toward the confluence
of the Mississippi/Ohio Rivers will help to reinforce a
northwest/southeast-oriented baroclinic zone from the Ozarks toward
the lower Mississippi River Valley and middle Gulf Coast. Ample
heating/moisture to the south of the aforementioned convection and
near/southwest of the front will lead to moderate to strong
destabilization. Isolated to widely scattered surface-based
thunderstorms appear likely later this afternoon, particularly
across the Ozarks. Locally damaging winds will likely be the primary
risk regionally with the more robust convection.

...South-central High Plains...
Strong surface heating across the Texas Panhandle into northeast New
Mexico will result in steep low-level lapse rates and modest
buoyancy by early afternoon. This will be as low-level moisture and
low-level upslope flow increase in the wake of a southward-sagging
front. While deep-layer flow will remain weak, the thermodynamic
environment should support gusty winds with the more robust
updrafts.

...Eastern North Dakota/northern Minnesota...
An MCV/convectively enhanced vort max continues east-southeastward
across far southeast Manitoba/nearby Ontario early this morning,
with related convection across northern Minnesota. While post-MCV
forcing for ascent will not be robust, sufficient heating and
low-level convergence may allow for at least isolated deep
convective development late this afternoon/early evening near a
boundary extending across northern Minnesota southwestward into
eastern North Dakota. Deep-layer/low-level shear will be weak, but
moderate destabilization could allow for a few multicell severe
storms capable of locally damaging winds and possibly hail.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 08/16/2022