Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper ridge will persist over the western CONUS, while
upper troughing remains across much of the central and eastern
states on Thursday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough should
move southward from central Canada over parts of the northern Plains
and Upper Midwest through the period. While some low-level moisture
should be in place across these regions, greater instability
forecast over the Upper Midwest should remain generally displaced
from the stronger mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear across
the northern Plains. Accordingly, any severe potential with
thunderstorms that can develop in this regime currently appears
rather limited.

Thunderstorms should also develop Thursday along and south of a
front that should be draped across the southern Plains into the
lower MS Valley and Southeast. Multiple rounds of convection should
have already occurred across parts of these areas on previous days,
and the effective surface boundary may be located farther south than
most guidance currently indicates. Moderate instability may develop
through Thursday afternoon to the south of any ongoing convection in
the morning. But, this instability should remain mostly south of
fairly modest mid-level westerly flow that will be present on the
southern periphery of the upper trough. Given the uncertainties with
prior convection and a lack of appreciable deep-layer shear forecast
across the warm sector, have opted to not include low severe
probabilities at this time.

..Gleason.. 08/16/2022