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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly
wind damage appear possible Wednesday across parts of the Southeast.

...Southeast...
An upper trough/low will remain over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
on Wednesday, with the trailing portion of the trough located over
the Southeast. At the surface, a front should move slowly southward
across much of the Deep South and southern Plains through the
period. This boundary will likely provide a focus for thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon and evening, some of which could beco*e strong
to severe.

Mid-level west-northwesterly winds are forecast to remain fairly
modest across the Southeast, as this region will be on the southern
periphery of the upper trough/low enco*passing much of the eastern
CONUS. Still, around 20-30 kt deep-layer shear near the front should
encourage some updraft organization. Thunderstorms are forecast to
form along/near the front as it shifts slowly southward through the
day. Other convection should also develop along sea breezes in north
FL. As robust diurnal heating of a seasonably moist low-level
airmass occurs, MLCAPE generally ranging from 1500-3000 J/kg should
develop south of the front. Multiple small clusters should
consolidate and spread southward through early Wednesday evening.
Owing to steepened low-level lapse rates and plentiful DCAPE, this
activity may pose an isolated threat for damaging downdraft winds.
Adjustments have been made to the northern extent of the Marginal
Risk in AL/GA due to the stabilizing influence of morning
precipitation that is forecast by most guidance.

..Gleason.. 08/16/2022