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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated supercell development is possible across parts of
northwestern Oklahoma into south central Kansas late Thursday
afternoon and evening, with additional strong thunderstorms posing
at least some risk for severe hail northeastward into parts of the
lower Missouri Valley overnight.

...Synopsis...
Latest model output indicates that the large-scale mid/upper
troughing, evolving within the mid-latitude westerlies in prior days
over the eastern Pacific, will begin to progress inland of the
Pacific coast during this period.  One significant embedded short
trough is generally forecast to pivot within the base of the larger
scale troughing, across the southern California coast into the lower
Colorado Valley by late Thursday night.

Downstream, a mid-level high may attempt to evolve across the
eastern Gulf States vicinity, with broad mid-level ridging building
along an axis to its northwest, from the lower Mississippi Valley
toward eastern portions of the Canadian Prairies.  Mid-level
troughing to the east of the ridge is forecast to dig through the
upper Great Lakes region, before turning eastward toward Quebec and
the Northeast.  

In response to the progression of the eastern short wave trough, a
couple of cold fronts may begin to consolidate, with the
southern/lead boundary advancing across the northern Mid Atlantic
coast by 12Z Friday, while its western flank shifts back northward
through the central Great Plains/middle Mississippi Valley vicinity.

Surface ridging, with potentially cool/dry air, will remain an
influence across much of the Southeast and northeastern into central
Gulf of Mexico.  However, southerly return flow around its
southwestern periphery may continue to gradually moisten from parts
of the western Gulf into Sierra Madre Oriental northward toward the
higher southern into central Great Plains and mid/lower Missouri
Valley.

...Central Great Plains and adjacent Missouri Valley vicinity...
The dryline across the higher plains of west Texas into western
Oklahoma and southwest Kansas could beco*e a focus for moderate
boundary-layer destabilization late Thursday afternoon.  However,
with the dryline likely to be in the process of retreating to
deepening lee surface troughing, sustained vigorous thunderstorm
development seems unlikely, particularly beneath strengthening
mid-level inhibition.  

One plausible exception may be where low-level convergence beco*es
enhanced near the intersection of the dryline and developing surface
warm frontal zone across northwestern Oklahoma or adjacent southern
Kansas.  This may be aided by a strengthening southerly low-level
jet by early Thursday evening, which will contribute to an
environment increasingly conducive for the evolution of supercells.

If one or two storms are able to initiate and be maintained, they
may pose a risk for producing large hail and perhaps tornadoes. 
Aided by forcing near the strengthening low-level jet axis, this
activity may persist into the evening, shifting north of the warm
front.  As this occurs, large hail will beco*e the primary hazard as
storms spread north-northeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley
and perhaps increase in coverage through around 05-07Z Thursday
night.

..Kerr.. 04/19/2022