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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the
Carolinas, with occasional damaging gusts possible into eastern
Mississippi. An isolated severe hail/wind threat may also develop
across parts of the central and northern Plains.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will prevail across the central and southern U.S.
while multiple (albeit weak) mid-level impulses traverse the
northern Plains and larger-scale upper troughing beco*es established
along the Atlantic Seaboard today. Surface low development across
the northern and central Plains by afternoon, amid modest buoyancy,
should support scattered thunderstorm development into the evening
hours, with isolated severe wind/hail possible. Across the Carolinas
into the Southeast, scattered to numerous thunderstorms should
develop by afternoon along and south of a baroclinic zone,
acco*panied by an appreciable severe threat.

...Carolinas into the Southeast...
Clouds along with showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
at the start of the period across VA into NC. These storms are
expected to reinforce a baroclinic zone somewhere from central NC to
the NC/SC border. As daytime heating along this baroclinic zone
destabilizes the boundary layer, around 1000-2000 J/kg of tall,
skinny MLCAPE may result given the presence of 7 C/km low and
mid-level lapse rates atop upper 60s/low 70s F surface dewpoints.
Weak surface low development may occur near the baroclinic zone
beneath a belt of 40-50 kts of 500-300 mb flow, contributing to
modest veering and strengthening of tropospheric winds/modestly
curved and elongated hodographs to support multicell/transient
supercell structures. An appreciable severe wind/hail threat would
acco*pany the more dominant supercell structures (hence the Cat
2/SLGT introduction), with brief bouts of low-level rotation
possible with storms that can anchor along the baroclinic zone.
Storms should gradually weaken after sunset.

...Central Plains...
Widespread clouds and precipitation should be ongoing across
portions of the central Plains at the start of the period and may
continue into the mid-morning hours. A differential heating boundary
should beco*e established along or just north of the KS/NE border by
afternoon as a surface low beco*es established across northwest KS.
Strong surface heating and convergence along the outflow boundary
will support scattered thunderstorm development in the mid-afternoon
to early evening hours. While stronger upper flow/shear will exist
well north of the outflow boundary, up to 30 kts of effective bulk
shear may overlap with the warm sector, supporting an outflow
dominant multicellular mode. A couple of damaging gusts may occur
with the stronger storms given a well-mixed boundary layer, though a
brief instance or two of large hail cannot be ruled out.

...Northern Plains...
The approach of a modest-mid-level impulse will serve as the impetus
for convective initiation ahead of a weak surface low across western
ND by late afternoon. Tropospheric flow and associated deep-layer
shear is expected to remain modest at best. However, steep low and
mid-level lapse rates will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE.
Outflow dominant multicellular storms will be the dominant
convective mode, with a few bouts of severe hail possible given the
steeper mid-level lapse rates. A severe gust or two may also
acco*pany merging storms/cold pools.

..Squitieri/Darrow.. 08/15/2022