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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday
across parts of the Ozarks into the lower Mississippi Valley and
central Gulf Coast. Occasional damaging winds should be the main
threat, but some hail may also occur.

...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks and Lower Mississippi
Valley/Central Gulf Coast...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough should move southeastward from
parts of the central Plains across the Ozarks and the Mid-South on
Tuesday while gradually weakening. Modestly enhanced mid-level
northwesterly flow should overspread these regions through the day.
A weak surface low over the southern/central Plains should
consolidate over eastern OK by late Tuesday afternoon, with a cold
front moving southward across the southern/central Plains through
the period. A narrow corridor of rich low-level moisture should be
present to the northeast/east of the surface low, extending across
the Ozarks into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states.

Mainly elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the
period Tuesday morning across MO and vicinity. As diurnal heating of
the moist low-level airmass occurs, moderate to locally strong
instability is forecast to develop along/south of a front. Although
mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, there should
be enough deep-layer shear for modest convective organization from
the Ozarks into AR. A mix of multicells and marginal supercells may
develop southeastward across these areas Tuesday afternoon and
evening as modest ascent associated with the shortwave trough
overspreads the warm sector. Isolated strong to damaging winds and
some hail both appear possible.

Farther south into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast
states, deep-layer shear should remain weak. Still, moderate to
strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates may support
locally damaging winds with any thunderstorms that can form. A weak
front draped across these regions should provide a focus for
initiation, with most guidance showing convection developing Tuesday
afternoon and spreading generally south-southeastward towards the
Gulf Coast. A mix of pulse and loosely organized multicell
thunderstorms should occur. Have expanded low severe wind
probabilities in a narrow corridor across these regions to account
for this isolated damaging wind potential.

...Southern Georgia into the Coastal Carolinas...
An upper trough/low should remain centered over the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast on Tuesday. Current expectations are for the best
convective potential to remain very near or just offshore from
coastal GA into the eastern Carolinas along a front. If convection
can develop and strengthen over land before quickly moving offshore,
then there may be an isolated threat for damaging winds along the
immediate coast given adequate forecast instability and sufficient
shear. But, the potential for this scenario occurring still appears
too low to introduce a Marginal Risk at this time.

..Gleason.. 08/15/2022