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Mesoscale Discussion 1678
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

Areas affected...Extreme northeast MT into northwest ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 142211Z - 150015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated storm or two capable of hail and locally
strong/severe wind gusts will be possible by early evening. Watch
issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...At 22Z, cumulus is deepening near a weak surface low
and attendant cold front from south-central SK into extreme
northeast MT, with storm development underway across Sheridan
County, MT. Other cumulus is noted farther southeast into northwest
ND along a weak surface confluence zone. Isolated storms are
expected to mature in this region and then spread southeastward with
time this evening. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of near 1000 J/kg near
the MT/ND border increasing to near 2000 J/kg across northwest ND)
and effective shear of 25-30 kt will support modest organized storm
potential, with a threat of isolated hail and strong/locally severe
wind gusts. Somewhat greater deep-layer shear (effective shear of
30+ kt) is noted to the east of the confluence zone across northwest
ND, where low-level flow is slightly more backed, and a supercell
cannot be ruled out if robust convection can move into this somewhat
more favorable environment. 

With the severe threat expected to remain generally isolated, watch
issuance is currently considered unlikely.

..Dean/Goss.. 08/14/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON   49000449 49020330 48980186 48280151 47790150 47370180
            47260229 46910329 47100475 47180542 48200453 49000449