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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...AND PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Monday across
parts of Georgia into the Carolinas and southern Virginia, and for
portions of the northern and central Plains. Occasional damaging
winds and hail should be the main threats.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging, centered over the southern High Plains, is forecast
to cover much of the southern Plains, Southwest, and Great Basin
Monday morning. Some dampening is anticipated along the northeastern
periphery of this ridge as a shortwave trough progresses from the
central High Plains towards the Lower MO Valley. Upper troughing is
expected to persist over the eastern CONUS, with a corridor of
enhanced northwesterly flow between this troughing and the ridging
to the west (i.e. from the Upper Midwest to the Carolinas). One or
more convectively induced shortwave troughs may be moving through
this corridor of enhanced flow, including one that may move through
the southern Appalachians and into the Carolinas Monday afternoon.

...Georgia into the Carolinas and Southern Virginia...
The surface pattern early Monday morning is forecast to feature a
low over eastern KY, with a weak frontal boundary extending westward
trough southern MO  This surface low should develop towards the
Carolinas through the day, with a trailing cold front slowly moving
east-southeastward across the TN Valley into the central
Appalachians and Southeast through the period. 

Air mass downstream of this front will likely feature temperatures
in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s, contributing to
moderate buoyancy by the early afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected
to develop along the front as it interacts with this warm and moist
air mass, with some supporting large-scale ascent attendant to the
shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis. A predominantly
multicellular storm mode is anticipated, with outflow-dominant
storms contributing to bowing line segments. However, effective bulk
shear is forecast to be around 25 to 35 kt, which could support a
few supercells. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe risk,
but hail is also possible, particularly if any supercells develop.

...Northern/Central Plains...
A stationary front is expected to extend from southern MO back
northwestward to a low near the western KS/NE border. This central
Plains low will likely be the southernmost in a series of weak lows
along a surface trough across the western Dakotas. The western KS/NE
low should consolidate over KS and vicinity through the day while
deepening slightly, with a narrow corridor of rich low-level
moisture extending from parts of NE into eastern KS and MO.
Low-level convergence near this deepening low, as well as along the
trough extending southward from this low and the sharpening
stationary boundary, may result in convective initiation.
Uncertainty regarding the thermodynamic conditions, largely
resulting from uncertainty regarding cloud cover and the
coverage/extent of antecedent precipitation, currently limits
predictability. A few strong to severe storms are possible if
updrafts are able to mature.

Additional thunderstorms are possible along the surface trough 
across the western Dakotas. However, like areas farther south,
antecedent precipitation and resulting cloud cover result in
uncertainty regarding afternoon/evening air mass destabilization.
Additionally, modest height rises are possible across the region.
Despite these negative factors, recent guidance shows storm
development across the region and at least a low potential for a few
severe storms.

..Mosier.. 08/14/2022