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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An expansive upper ridge centered over the Rockies and Plains is
forecast to move little on Sunday. Downstream, an upper trough will
remain over the eastern states. Modestly enhanced mid-level
northwesterly flow should be present between these two features
extending from parts of the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley and
central Appalachians.

At the surface, an area of weak low pressure should develop slowly
across the OH Valley and central Appalachians through the period. An
attendant cold front should also advance southward across the mid MS
Valley and OH Valley. Thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday morning
across these areas, but they should weaken through the day.
Additional convective development Sunday afternoon along/ahead of
the cold front appears uncertain owing to weak forcing aloft. At
least weak instability should develop across the warm sector, with
sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. Still, the
threat for surface-based convection appears too conditional for low
severe probabilities at this time, with a better chance for mainly
elevated thunderstorms Sunday evening/night across portions of the
central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic.

At least widely scattered convection should develop once again from
parts of the Southwest into the Rockies and northern/central Plains
on the western and northern periphery of the upper ridge. Initial
development will likely be focused across higher terrain, with
thunderstorms eventually spreading into the High Plains late Sunday
afternoon and evening. Generally modest mid/upper-level flow should
tend to limit deep-layer shear across these regions. But, steepening
low-level lapse rates as diurnal heating occurs may encourage
isolated strong/gusty winds with the more robust cores. At this
point, there is not a strong enough signal in guidance for a loosely
organized cluster to develop across the northern/central High Plains
to include low severe wind probabilities.

Other thunderstorms should occur mainly Sunday afternoon across
parts of the Southeast along and south of a remnant front. Sea
breeze boundaries should also provide a focus for convective
development. Anemic deep-layer shear is expected to greatly limit
thunderstorm organization. Finally, a weak tropical disturbance may
move inland from parts of the lower TX Coast into deep south TX on
Sunday. Most guidance shows modest low-level wind fields with this
feature, with low severe potential anticipated at this time.

..Gleason.. 08/13/2022