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Topic: SPC Aug 12, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook (Read 77 times) previous topic - next topic

SPC Aug 12, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC Aug 12, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

[html]Day 4-8 Outlook
     
Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The upper pattern across the CONUS is forecast to remain rather
stagnant through at least the middle of next week. Upper ridging
over the western/central states should persist, with an upper trough
over the eastern CONUS. Modestly enhanced mid-level northwesterly
flow should exist in between these two features. But, greater
low-level moisture and related instability will likely remain
confined to parts of coastal TX and the Southeast through much of
the extended forecast period. While isolated strong to occasionally
severe thunderstorms may occur in this regime, the potential for an
organized severe thunderstorm episode appears generally low owing to
weak deep-layer shear. By late next week (around Day 8/Friday), some
guidance suggests that the upper ridge may begin to break down. This
may eventually allow rich low-level moisture to return northward
across parts of the central CONUS.


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Source: SPC Aug 12, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/)