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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper ridging will remain prominent over much of the Rockies and
Plains on Saturday, with an upper trough forecast to move slowly
eastward across the eastern CONUS. A separate upper trough will
persist over British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. Rich
low-level moisture is generally forecast to remain along and south
of a stalled front extending across TX into the Southeast. A weak
surface low should develop from parts of the Upper Midwest into the
OH Valley through the period, with a secondary cold front expected
to move southward across portions of the central Plains into the
Midwest and mid MS Valley. More limited/shallow low-level moisture
should be present along and south of this secondary front, and to
the east of a surface trough extending over parts of the northern
and central High Plains.

A conditionally favorable environment should exist for severe
thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest Saturday afternoon, as
enhanced mid/upper-level northwesterly winds support strong
deep-layer shear. Still, most guidance suggests that weak
convergence along the secondary cold front and a lingering cap
should limit surface-based thunderstorm coverage through the day.
Mainly elevated convection may occur north of the front. With
limited potential for thunderstorms occurring in the warm sector,
have refrained from including low severe probabilities.

Otherwise, convection should once again develop over the higher
terrain of the northern/central Rockies Saturday afternoon, and
subsequently spread eastward across the adjacent northern/central
High Plains through Saturday evening. Locally strong/gusty winds may
occur with the more robust cores given a deeply mixed boundary
layer. But, modest low-level moisture and generally weak effective
bulk shear should tend to limit the potential for organized severe
thunderstorms.

..Gleason.. 08/12/2022