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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN
IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms capable of a few localized severe gusts are
possible on Friday over parts of the northern Rockies.

...Synopsis...
A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to persist over
the eastern CONUS on Friday, while an upper ridge remains anchored
over the central Rockies and Great Plains. An upper-level cyclone
off of the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to move slowly
northward and approach Vancouver Island by late Friday night. At the
surface, a cold front will push southward across the Carolinas and
Southeast. A secondary front will move through portions of the OH/TN
Valleys, though the northern portion of this boundary may push
northward as a warm front across parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota.


...Northern Rockies...
Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates, diurnal heating, and
sufficient low-level moisture will support weak to moderate buoyancy
by Friday afternoon from parts of northern ID into western MT.  The
primary limiting factor will be large-scale forcing for ascent
remaining displaced to the west of the region near the Pacific
coast.  Nonetheless, orographic lift and heating will probably
result in isolated storms developing during the afternoon.  Ample
deep-layer shear (40 kt effective) coupled with steep lapse rates
will enhance storm organization and the risk for isolated severe
gusts during the late afternoon through th evening.

...GA/SC...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected on Friday near the
front across portions of GA into SC, and perhaps coastal areas of
NC. Modest northwesterly midlevel flow may support sufficient
deep-layer shear for some weakly organized storms, though weak
midlevel lapse rates and low-level flow are generally expected to
limit organized severe-wind potential. Isolated strong gusts capable
of tree damage will be possible, especially where stronger diurnal
heating/destabilization occurs prior to storm arrival.

..Smith.. 08/11/2022