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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022

Valid 111700Z - 121200Z

Morning surface observations show dry air in place across parts of
northeast CA and southern OR as well as across the central High
Plains. This will support areas of elevated fire weather conditions
this afternoon as winds increase to near 15 mph in the lee of the
Cascades and in the vicinity of a surface trough over parts of
NE/SD. Confidence in such winds has increased based on recent
observations and morning ensemble guidance, warranting an
introduction of risk areas. Fuels across both regions are receptive
to fire spread based on latest ERC estimates and will support at
least regional fire weather concerns. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms remain likely across the northern Rockies, but morning
soundings suggest sufficient moisture is in place to favor
thunderstorms with wetting precipitation.

..Moore.. 08/11/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are forecast to be relatively low today as the
mid-level ridge shifts east and strengthens over the Rockies. To the
west, an upper low is forecast to weaken as it moves slowly along
the WA/OR Coast. Lingering mid-level flow and moisture will support
locally elevated fire weather concerns, along with the potential for
isolated thunderstorms. 

...Northwest...
Mid-level flow east of the upper low, will support occasional gusty
surface winds in the lee of the Sierra and Cascades this afternoon.
Coincident with warm temperatures and dry surface conditions, a few
hours of locally elevated fire weather concerns are expected within
dry fuels. The highest confidence in sustained elevated conditions
is expected across southern OR where RH values may fall as low as
15-20%. 

Farther north, mid-level moisture remains in place near the upper
low increasing surface RH values and casting greater uncertainty on
the localized fire weather risk. However, a few hours of gusty winds
near 15 mph and lower RH may support some risk for locally elevated
fire weather in the lee of the Cascades where downslope winds are
expected. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms may pose a risk for
lightning in dry fuels across portions of eastern WA and ID as
moisture is slowly shifted to the east. Please see the latest
convective outlook for information on the severe-weather risk.

...Northern High Plains...
Weak low-level winds are expected beneath anemic flow aloft as the
mid-level ridge strengthens across much of the central US. While not
expected to exceed more than 15 or 20 mph, a few gusts enhanced by a
lee cyclone across the western Dakotas will develop within a dry and
warm airmass with temperatures near 100F. With afternoon RH values
of 20-25% and only marginally conducive winds forecast, the fire
weather threat is expected to remain localized.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...