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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE INLAND PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible over parts of the
inland Pacific Northwest.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, a major anticyclone will remain centered over
the central Rockies through the period, with slight southeastward
drift possible.  Mean troughing will amplify over the Great Lakes,
Northeast, Ohio Valley and Appalachians, as a series of shortwave
perturbations moves southeastward from parts of southern QC/ON and
the Upper Great Lakes.  However, appreciable associated large-scale
forcing and deep shear should remain north of the southern front
described below. 

Meanwhile, the main vorticity lobe and height minimum of a
long-lived, synoptic-scale cyclone was evident in moisture-channel
imagery about 175 nm west of UIL, pivoting around the geometric
center located somewhat to the south.  The cyclone as a whole should
remain near its present position and size through the period, as the
low consolidates offshore, before moving northward toward Vancouver
Island on day 2. 

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a leading cold front extending
from a low east of NJ, across the Delmarva Peninsula to southern WV
and central KY, beco*ing quasistationary across northern AR,
southern OK and the TX South Plains.  This front should move slowly
southward to eastern NC, north-central GA, and central portions of
MS/LA by 12Z, beco*ing diffuse farther west.  A few damaging gusts
cannot be ruled out ahead of the front over the Southeast, where
surface dewpoints are analyzed (and should remain in) the upper 60s
to low 70s F; however, with modest lapse rates and weak deep-layer
flow/shear, an organized severe threat appears unlikely over land.  

A secondary cold front was drawn from the St. Lawrence Valley to
near BUF, TOL and ORD, beco*ing quasistationary across central IA,
southern SD, and eastern MT.  This boundary should move
southeastward and merge with the southern front over VA/NC by the
end of the period.  Its western segment is expected to move
northward as a warm front across parts of SD/IA tonight, in response
to weak surface cyclogenesis over western/central SD.  Elevated
thunderstorms may develop overnight, especially after 09Z, northeast
of this front across parts of the Dakotas and MN.  Modest deep
shear, and lack of greater moisture/buoyancy aloft, should preclude
an organized severe threat.

...Northwest CONUS...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form
this afternoon over portions of eastern OR/western ID then move
northward to northeastward into the evening, offering isolated
severe gusts.

Low-level moist/warm advection will co*bine with diurnal heating to
foster supportive buoyancy for deep convection, and to maintain
favorable low-level moisture, despite diabatically driven boundary-
layer mixing/deepening.  Lower elevation surface dew points should
stay mostly in the 50s across the outlook area beneath steep low/
middle-level lapse rates, contributing to MLCAPE in the 500-1500
J/kg range.  Mid/upper-level winds will remain difluent, but also,
strong enough to contribute to favorable cloud-layer shear.  Pockets
of stronger (40-50-kt) effective-shear magnitudes and long, fairly
straight hodographs also may develop, where orographic features and
general surface low pressure over the area contribute to backing of
low-level winds to an easterly co*ponent.

..Edwards/Leitman.. 08/11/2022