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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The threat for severe thunderstorms is expected to be relatively low
on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to persist over
the eastern CONUS on Friday, while an upper ridge remains anchored
over the central Rockies and Great Plains. An upper-level cyclone
off of the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to move slowly
northward and approach Vancouver Island by late Friday night. At the
surface, a cold front will push southward across the Carolinas and
Southeast. A secondary front will move through portions of the OH/TN
Valleys, though the northern portion of this boundary may push
northward as a warm front across parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota.

...Interior Northwest...
Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates, diurnal heating, and
sufficient low-level moisture may support pockets of moderate
destabilization by Friday afternoon from northeast OR/eastern WA
into parts of western/northern ID. Moderate midlevel flow along the
eastern periphery of the upper cyclone will support effective shear
of 30-40 kt, which will be conditionally favorable for organized
convection. The primary uncertainty regarding the severe threat is
storm coverage, with the strongest large-scale ascent expected to
remain generally west and north of the region. This uncertainty
precludes the addition of severe probabilities at this time, but an
isolated strong storm or two cannot be ruled out during the
afternoon/evening. Greater storm coverage is expected farther east
over southwest into central MT, as storms develop and then move off
of the higher terrain, though deep-layer shear is expected to be
weaker in this area. 

...GA/SC...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected on Friday near the
front across portions of GA into SC, and perhaps coastal areas of
NC. Modest northwesterly midlevel flow may support sufficient
deep-layer shear for some weakly organized storms, though weak
midlevel lapse rates and low-level flow are generally expected to
limit organized severe-wind potential. Isolated strong gusts capable
of tree damage will be possible, especially where stronger diurnal
heating/destabilization occurs prior to storm arrival.

..Dean.. 08/11/2022