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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong thunderstorms are possible today across the
eastern Carolinas and also parts of southeastern Florida, perhaps
acco*panied by some risk for severe weather.

...Synopsis...
An initially low-amplitude, negatively tilted upper trough will
continue moving across the central and southeastern U.S. today. 
While the southern portion of the trough gradually shifts into the
western Atlantic, a closed low will gradually evolve farther north,
with the cyclone moving into the lower Great Lakes overnight. 
Meanwhile, a second low will shift into/across the Pacific Northwest
and adjacent western Canada.  In between, ridging will gradually
advance eastward across the Intermountain West and into the Plains.

At the surface, a western cold front will shift inland across the
Pacific Northwest and eventually reach the Great Basin, while a
second front crosses the Southeast through the day.  As the front
moves offshore, a surface low is progged to deepen rapidly through
the second half of the period, shifting northward across the
Mid-Atlantic region and into the Hudson Valley vicinity by the end
of the period.

...c*astal Carolinas...
Though the bulk of the stronger convection will likely remain
offshore over the Gulf Stream, a minimally unstable but
kinematically favorable environment is forecast across the coastal
Carolinas during the day.  Southeasterly low-level flow ahead of the
advancing cold front will veer/increase with height, resulting in
shear sufficient for both mid-level and low-level updraft rotation. 
As such, will maintain MRGL categorical severe risk over coastal
North Carolina, and will expand the area southward across coastal
South Carolina, to cover a low-probability risk for a strong wind
gust or brief tornado.  Any such risk will end during the early
evening as the cold front moves offshore.

...Southeastern Florida...
As weak upper vort max shifts across central/southern Florida during
the afternoon, scattered storm development is expected --
particularly near the east coast sea-breeze boundary.  As the moist
low-level airmass diurnally heats in the vicinity of the boundary,
CAPE values in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range will support vigorous
updrafts.  While modest shear in the 0-6km layer will limit severe
potential, one or two of the stronger storms may beco*e briefly
capable of producing severe-caliber hail and/or wind gusts.  Risk
will diminish into the evening as storms weaken/shift offshore.

..Goss/Weinman.. 04/18/2022