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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of southeastern New Mexico and
west Texas late Tuesday afternoon and evening, acco*panied by at
least some risk for large hail and locally strong wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
Within the primary branch of westerlies emanating from the
mid-latitude Pacific, short waves are forecast to remain progressive
across the U.S. through this period, downstream of gradually
amplifying large-scale troughing over the eastern Pacific.  The most
significant trough appears likely to slowly accelerate northeast of
the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic region toward
the Canadian Maritimes.  It appears that this will be acco*panied by
a fairly deep, occluding surface cyclone migrating across southern
New England through the lower St. Lawrence Valley, with a trailing
cold front advancing offshore and away from the Atlantic Seaboard. 
Further lower/mid tropospheric drying is expected as far south as
southern Florida and the Keys, and the northeastern through central
Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of lingering weak mid/upper troughing in
a separate branch of westerlies across the Bahamas and Caribbean.

The most prominent trailing trough is forecast to progress inland of
the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast, across and east of the
Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies by late Tuesday night.  A lower
amplitude perturbation may accelerate eastward to its south, across
the Great Basin and southern Rockies.  This likely will be
acco*panied by deepening surface troughing through much of the Great
Plains, with developing cyclones east of the Canadian Rockies and to
the lee of the Front Range.  As this occurs, and southerly low-level
flow strengthens to the east of the surface trough axis, low-level
moisture currently banked up against the Sierra Madre Oriental of
Mexico will begin advecting northward.  This may include surface dew
points increasing through the lower/mid 60s across the lower Rio
Grande Valley, Texas Edwards Plateau and South Plains by late
Tuesday night, with moisture return elevated above a residual stable
near-surface layer into areas of the Great Plains to the north and
east.  However, this will also largely coincide with the
northeastward advection of a plume of warm and capping elevated
mixed-layer air. 

...Great Plains...
At least low probabilities for thunderstorms appear likely to
develop across a rather broad area east of the Rockies Tuesday
through Tuesday night.  It appears that this will mostly be
associated with moisture return and large-scale ascent in advance
of, and above, the northeastward advecting elevated mixed-layer air.
 Shear, and instability due to steep lapse rates, within this layer
might beco*e sufficient for some hail in widely scattered stronger
storms, but this is expected to remain generally below severe
limits.

Additional widely scattered to scattered high-based thunderstorm
development is expected late Tuesday afternoon and evening along the
sharpening dryline across the high plains, from near the mountains
of southwest Texas into the Black Hills vicinity.  Where
boundary-layer moistening may support modest mixed-layer CAPE of
500-1000 J/kg, from parts of the Pecos Valley northward through the
eastern New Mexico/west Texas border vicinity, it appears that
strong deep-layer shear could beco*e supportive of a couple of
supercells.  

...Pacific Northwest into northern Rockies...
Beneath cold mid-level air (including 500 mb temps below -30C)
associated with the inland migrating short wave trough, insolation
may contribute to weak destabilization supportive of low topped
convection capable of producing lightning Tuesday.  Stronger cells
probably will remain well below severe limits, but may be
acco*panied by graupel and gusty winds.

..Kerr.. 04/18/2022