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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND EASTERN OR AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and eastern Oregon and vicinity.

...20z update...

...Mid-Atlantic through this evening...
Clusters of storms have formed near the Blue Ridge in VA, and along
local convergence zones near the west shore of Chesapeake Bay. 
Outside of the storms, surface temperatures have warmed into the
lower 90s F with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s, which is driving
MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.  Additional clustering and some upscale
growth is expected through the afternoon with outflow interactions,
as storms spread eastward.  Though temperature/moisture profiles are
not particularly favorable for intense downdrafts, precipitation
loading and 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km will support isolated
tree damage with primarily sub-severe gusts.

...Eastern OR into southeastern WA this afternoon/evening...
An embedded shortwave trough has pivoted northward from OR to the
Olympic Peninsula, with some associated/elevated convection. 
Farther east, forcing for ascent is more nebulous, and thunderstorm
development will likely depend on terrain circulations across
eastern OR and northern WA.  The more probable area will be across
east central/northeast OR, along the west edge of the monsoonal
moisture plume and where boundary-layer dewpoints are being
maintained in the 55-60 F range.  MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg, steep lapse
rates, and effective bulk shear near 30 kt will support the
potential for isolated storms with strong-severe outflow winds and
some hail later this afternoon/evening.

..Thompson.. 08/10/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022/

...Mid Atlantic...
Warm and humid surface conditions are present today over the Mid
Atlantic region, with strong daytime heating resulting in afternoon
MLCAPE of 2500 J/kg.  A consensus of 12z model guidance suggests
that scattered thunderstorms will form by early-afternoon over the
mountains of eastern WV and western VA.  This activity will spread
slowly eastward into the Chesapeake Bay region.  Forecast soundings
and recent ACARS data from the DC/Baltimore area show very weak
winds aloft and poor mid-level lapse rates.  Given the lack of large
scale forcing mechanisms, convection that forms in this area should
be weakly organized.  Nevertheless, isolated tree damage may briefly
occur with the strongest cells.

...WA/OR...
An upper low is tracking northward off the OR/WA coast today, with
relatively strong southerly deep-layer flow across the interior
Pacific Northwest.  Mostly clear skies and dewpoints in the 50s will
result in a corridor of sufficient CAPE to pose a conditional threat
of strong/severe storms this afternoon and evening across the MRGL
risk area.  Model guidance suggests that the coverage of storms will
be quite limited.  Nevertheless, any storm that can form/persist
will pose a risk of gusty winds and hail.