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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may occur across the northern Rockies, but
the overall severe threat will be relatively low.

...Synopsis...
A midlevel high will persist over the central Rockies/High Plains,
with an upstream trough over the Pacific Northwest, and a downstream
trough over the OH Valley/Northeast.  An initial/weak cold front
from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic today will drift
southward into the northern Gulf states and Southeast, while a
reinforcing cold front moves southward into the OH Valley/Northeast.
 The richest low-level moisture and larger buoyancy will be confined
along and south of the initial cold front, where vertical shear will
be weak.  Isolated downbursts cannot be ruled out across the
Carolinas, but poor lapse rates will limit the threat.

The reinforcing cold front will beco*e quasi-stationary from SD into
IA, and may provide a focus for thunderstorm development Thursday
afternoon.  However, midlevel lapse rates will be poor across IA
during the afternoon, where a narrow corridor of residual
boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s will contribute to weak
buoyancy.  Where midlevel lapse rates will be steeper over SD, the
boundary layer will likely remain capped.  There will be enough
deep-layer northwesterly shear for organized/persistent storms along
the front in IA, but the weak buoyancy will limit any severe threat.
 Otherwise, elevated storms are expected overnight from MN into IA
as warm advection strengthens, but weak buoyancy will continue to
limit storm intensity.  Farther west, the monsoonal moisture plume
will persist across AZ/NM/UT into western CO/western WY, with
scattered (mainly diurnal) storms expected.  Some gusty outflow
winds will be possible in areas of steeper low-level lapse rates,
but substantial clustering of strong-severe storms appears unlikely.

...Northern Rockies Thursday afternoon/evening...
After an embedded shortwave trough rotates northward over the OR/WA
today, south-southwesterly flow aloft will persist through tomorrow
from WA/OR into northern ID.  The northwest edge of a monsoonal
moisture plume will coincide with a weak baroclinic zone near the
WA/OR/ID borders, with the potential for MLCAPE near or above 1000
J/kg and some enhancement to deep-layer flow/shear.  Nebulous
forcing for ascent (aside from local terrain) suggests that storm
coverage will be too isolated and the threat for wind/hail will be
too conditional to add severe probabilities at this time.

..Thompson.. 08/10/2022