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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Valid 101700Z - 111200Z

The forecast generally remains on track. The main adjustments for
this update were to trim both the Elevated and Dry Thunderstorm risk
areas across the Pacific Northwest to account for recent wetting
rainfall and to minimize overlap with areas expected to receive
heavy precipitation this afternoon (based on latest ensemble QPF
probabilities). Despite the unseasonably high low-level moisture
noted in morning surface obs across eastern WA/OR and western ID,
forecast soundings continue to show fast storm motions and
sufficient diurnal warming to support deeply mixed boundary layers
favorable for a few dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. A
few nocturnal showers/thunderstorms are possible over northern MT,
but the potential for dry lightning appears too limited for
additional highlights. See the previous discussion for additional
details.

..Moore.. 08/10/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022/

...Synopsis...
On the western periphery of strong mid-level high pressure
dominating the central CONUS, a co*pact upper low is expected to
continue northward along the West Coast. A second trough is forecast
move eastward along the northern rim of the ridge across portions of
the northern Rockies and High Plains. Enhanced by southerly gradient
winds between the upper low and ridge, mid-level moisture will
continue to spil* into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.
Stronger flow aloft and lift from the two troughs will support
scattered thunderstorms and the potential for elevated fire weather
concerns. 

...Northern CA/southern OR and western MT...
As heights lower ahead of the upper low and shortwave trough,
enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to develop along the
northwestern periphery of the ridge across CA/OR and portions of MT.
This enhanced flow will overspread a dry and warm airmass in the lee
of the northern Sierra and across the northern Rockies/High Plains.
Afternoon RH values below 25% and surface winds peaking near 20 mph
should support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire
weather conditions within receptive fuels. A few high-based
thunderstorms may also support strong and erratic gusts this
afternoon/evening.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
As the upper low continues to move slowly north along the West
Coast, dynamic lift will overspread abundant mid-level moisture in
place across the Northwest and northern Rockies. Area soundings show
PWAT values of 1-1.5 inches supporting elevated CAPE of 500-1000
J/kg. Beneath the unstable layers, modest low-level moisture and
warm surface temperatures should result in drier sub-cloud layers
with inverted-v structures. Higher evaporation potential should
favor a drier storm mode with the threat of occasional cloud to
ground strikes to receptive fuels. IsoDryT probabilities will be
maintained across portions of the interior Northwest and northern
Rockies. 

Farther west across the Olympic Peninsula and western Washington,
dry thunder potential is less certain given much cooler surface
conditions near an inland marine layer. While elevated buoyancy is
expected to support a risk for storms beneath the cold core of the
upper low, storm mode is forecast to be significantly wetter. While
isolated cloud to ground strikes will be possible within receptive
fuels, dry thunderstorms appear unlikely, and IsoDryT probabilities
will be held farther east. For additional information of the
severe-weather risk, please see the most recent Convective Outlook.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...