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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe winds, will be
possible today in parts of the Mid Atlantic. Other storms with
potential for strong winds and hail will be possible in parts of the
Pacific Northwest.

...Mid Atlantic...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across Ontario and the
Great Lakes region today. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front
will be located from the central Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic.
South of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will result in a
pocket of moderate instability by afternoon from North Carolina
northward into eastern Virginia. Thunderstorms will form in the
higher terrain of the central Appalachians, moving and developing
eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Although deep-layer shear will be
relatively weak, low-level lapse rates will beco*e steep in the
early to mid afternoon. This could be enough for a marginal
wind-damage threat associated with the stronger multicells around
peak heating.

...Pacific Northwest...
An upper-level low will move parallel to the Oregon coast today. To
the east of the system, southerly and divergent mid-level flow will
help maintain a narrow corridor of instability extending
north-northwestward across the Pacific Northwest. Thunderstorms are
expected to form this afternoon along and near this axis of
instability, from northeast Oregon into central and eastern
Washington. RAP forecast soundings in east-central Washington during
the late afternoon have MLCAPE peaking near 1000 J/kg and show 0-3
km lapse rates near 9.0 C/km. This could be enough for marginally
severe winds late this afternoon associated with high-based
thunderstorms that form near the strongest instability.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 08/10/2022