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Mesoscale Discussion 1669
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CDT Tue Aug 09 2022

Areas affected...Parts of central OR...far northeast CA...and far
northwest NV

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 091751Z - 092115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of isolated large hail and locally severe gusts
will gradually increase through the afternoon. A watch is not
currently expected.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a mid/upper-level low off the coast of
northern CA, a belt of deep/enhanced meridional flow (sampled by
regional 12z soundings) will continue overspreading northern CA into
south-central OR this afternoon. Recent water vapor imagery showed a
subtle embedded midlevel impulse moving northward across the area,
which co*bined with sufficient midlevel moisture/buoyancy has
resulted in an uptick in shallow convection along the higher terrain
in OR. Currently, lingering low-level inhibition and minimal
buoyancy are limiting updraft intensity, though isolated small hail
and locally strong gusts are still possible with this activity.

Behind this initial uptick in convection, diurnal heating/mixing
beneath a plume of modest midlevel lapse rates should contribute to
moderate surface-based instability by this afternoon, though ongoing
activity casts uncertainty on overall boundary-layer recovery
(especially over parts of OR along the Cascades). Nevertheless, if
an additional uptick in diurnally enhanced convection can intercept
pockets of surface-based inflow, 40-50 kt effective shear --
characterized by a long/generally straight hodograph -- would
support splitting supercell structures and locally organized
clusters. Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts may acco*pany
any persistent rotating updrafts or organized clusters, though the
threat appears too localized for a watch.

..Weinman/Hart.. 08/09/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...PDT...REV...MFR...PQR...

LAT...LON   42301812 41721828 41131887 40861978 41062044 41962083
            42782154 43462208 43872223 44552227 44912216 45112174
            45182055 44911942 44431864 43801827 42761806 42301812