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Mesoscale Discussion 0518
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0527 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Areas affected...portions of south-central TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136...

Valid 172227Z - 180000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail will remain possible another couple of hours
with strong to severe thunderstorms tracking south/southeast across
parts of south-central TX.

DISCUSSION...A few strong to severe cells continue to spread
south/southeast to the west of San Antonio. These cells are
developing along a dryline and accessing surface dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low 70s F and MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. Low-level
shear remains weak across the region, with EWX VWP data indicating
15 kt or less westerly winds through 3 km. Nevertheless, wind speeds
increase rapidly above 3 km, and effective shear magnitudes greater
than 45 kt is supporting at least briefly organized cells. Elongated
hodographs will continue to favor cells capable of large hail. MLCIN
increases with south and east extent, but a corridor from Uvalde and
Zavala Counties eastward across Frio and Atascosa may continue to
see a threat (in addition to Bexar and Medina Counties) over the
next couple of hours, and a local watch extension has been made
across these counties by WFO EWX.

..Leitman.. 04/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...

LAT...LON   29170007 29460007 29570002 29699970 29779892 29729847
            29599817 29429806 29149798 28869820 28699867 28649941
            28739979 28740001 29100009 29170007