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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 PM CDT Mon Aug 08 2022

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
INDIANA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong thunderstorms, posing a risk for marginally
severe wind gusts, will still be possible for another hour or two
this evening from parts of central Indiana into the lower Great
Lakes.

...Indiana/Ohio/Far Northwest Pennsylvania/Far Western New York...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough located in the
Great Lakes, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending
northeastward from the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Great
Lakes. Thunderstorms are ongoing within this plume ahead of a cold
front, and along the northern edge of a corridor of moderate
instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE from near 3000 J/kg in
south-central Indiana to about 1200 J/kg in far northwestern
Pennsylvania. Although deep-layer shear is relatively weak along
this corridor, low-level lapse rates may be steep enough for a
marginally severe wind gust or two associated with the strongest
multicell line segments. The severe threat should persist for
another hour or two before diminishing due to the loss of daytime
heating.

..Broyles.. 08/09/2022