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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Mon Aug 08 2022

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN
INDIANA...NORTHERN OHIO...NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong thunderstorms, posing a risk for locally damaging
wind gusts, may still develop late this afternoon across parts of
southern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana into western New
England.

...20Z Outlook Update...
There have been some adjustments to the categorical and
probabilistic lines, mostly to account for the gradual progression
of synoptic and sub-synoptic features and associated impacts
concerning destabilization.

Please refer to the prior discussion appended below, and the latest
SPC Mesoscale Discussions, for details concerning the convective
potential for late this afternoon into tonight.

..Kerr.. 08/08/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Mon Aug 08 2022/

...MI/IN/OH...
Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough moving across Lake
Superior into Ontario.  The associated trailing cold front extends
across northern Lower MI into northern IL.  Considerable cloud cover
is present ahead of the front, but a co*bination of dewpoints in the
70s and broken sunshine will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of
1500-2000 J/kg.  Most 12z model solutions suggest that scattered
thunderstorms will develop later today as the cold front sags into
southern Lower MI and northern IN/OH.  Mid level lapse rates are
weak, but steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient steering flow
will pose some risk of locally gusty/damaging winds in the strongest
cells.

...NY/western New England...
Visible satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies this morning
from central NY into much of central/southern New England.  This
area has already begun to show a considerable cu field, and is
likely to develop into isolated thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. 
Temperatures in the mid/upper 80s will lead to steep low-level lapse
rates and MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg.  Flow aloft is rather
weak, but the strongest cells in this area may produce
gusty/damaging winds this afternoon and early evening.