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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND WRN/CNTRL SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on
Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into
the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a
risk for producing a couple of tornadoes and locally strong surface
gusts.

...Discussion...
Within the amplified, split westerlies, one significant mid/upper
trough is forecast to continue digging inland of the U.S. Pacific
coast during this period, downstream of a prominent ridge across the
mid-latitude eastern Pacific.  It does appear that one or two
smaller-scale perturbations emerging from this trough will
accelerate northeastward across the northern U.S. Rockies into the
Canadian Prairies, around the northwestern periphery of broad
downstream ridging extending across the northern U.S. Great Plains
through St. Lawrence Valley.

In lower-levels, models indicate that deeper surface troughing will
shift east of the Rockies into Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the
Dakotas, while deepening southward through the southern high plains.
 However, destabilization near this feature is likely to be
significantly inhibited by warm air aloft, and the lack of
appreciable low-level moisture return due to the continuing presence
of a broad mid/upper low initially centered across the lower
Mississippi Valley.

Cut off from the stronger westerlies, to the south of the broad
mid-level ridging, movement of this low is likely to remain slow;
however, models indicate that it will probably elongate
north-northeastward across the Mid South and lower Ohio Valley,
while taking on a negative tilt east of the lower Mississippi Valley
into Southeast.  In lower levels, this may be acco*panied by broad,
weak surface troughing developing across much of the Southeast, as
surface ridging slowly shifts east of the Atlantic Seaboard.

...Southeast...
Differences exist among the various model output, but the gradient
between the low-level ridging and troughing may continue to support
a belt of modest southerly low-level flow (20-30+ kt around 850 mb)
along a corridor roughly from the Florida Peninsula into the South
Carolina Piedmont.  It appears probable that this will coincide with
a deep lower/mid-tropospheric moist plume emanating from the lower
latitudes, beneath a belt of moderate to strong, difluent
southwesterly high-level flow, perhaps contributing to an
environment at least conditionally supportive of supercells with
potential to produce tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 05/10/2025