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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
Southeast today, and the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains
this afternoon through the evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid to upper-level low will meander over Louisiana today with
troughing enco*passing the western Gulf basin.  In the low levels, a
weak surface low is forecast to move northward and inland from the
MS/AL coast, with a stationary front over southern AL and GA. 

Farther west, a belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will
extend from the Pacific Northwest into the southern Prairie
Provinces, downstream of an eastward migrating trough forecast to
approach the Pacific Northwest coast early Sunday morning.  The
higher-momentum flow is expected to glance the northern High Plains.

...FL into far southern GA/AL...
A moist and moderately unstable air mass will exist south of the
frontal zone.  Scattered to numerous storms are forecast over parts
of the Gulf extending from southern AL into the FL Panhandle during
the day.  A few of the stronger storms may organize given the
veering wind profiles and sufficient effective shear.  An isolated
risk for all hazards may develop over the FL Panhandle during the
day, while smaller hodographs farther south into the Peninsula will
tend to favor mostly an isolated hail/wind farther south.

...MT/ID...
Strong heating and orographic lift over southwest MT will favor
widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. 
Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud
layer will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger
cores as storms mature as they move northeast.  A couple of clusters
are possible with severe outflow.  This activity will likely spread
into northern/northeast MT during the evening.  Farther south,
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast during the
afternoon.  Similar to farther north, steep lapse rates will favor
isolated severe gusts with the stronger cores.

..Smith/Lyons.. 05/10/2025