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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN IOWA AND CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible across parts of
Arizona and Iowa this evening.

...Synopsis...
A benign upper pattern will prevail across most of the CONUS as a
mid-level trough progresses across the northern Plains tonight. Deep
moisture continues to pivot anticyclonically around a surface high
across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S., supporting continued
scattered thunderstorms which should gradually wane in coverage into
the night. A weak surface lee trough across the Midwest, and
easterly (albeit weak) deep-layer flow across the Southwest should
continue to foster occasionally strong/isolated severe thunderstorms
through the evening.

...Central Iowa...
Multicell clusters are in progress across central IA and have
recently demonstrated modest bowing signatures in DMX velocity data.
Ample buoyancy (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) remains in place to support
continued robust thunderstorm updrafts. Modest veering/strengthening
of the vertical wind profile in the low to mid-levels is
contributing to adequate deep-layer shear to support an isolated
damaging gust threat for a few more hours this evening.
Boundary-layer stabilization should contribute to a gradual waning
of the severe threat overnight.

...Central into southern Arizona...
Multiple pulse-cellular storms continue to propagate west-southwest
across portions of central into southeast AZ, preceded by a
well-mixed boundary layer. As such, high-based thunderstorms should
continue to traverse the desert floor this evening, especially
across southeast AZ given the presence of deep-layer easterly flow.
The strongest storms may support a couple of severe wind gusts and
perhaps an instance or two of small hail.

..Squitieri.. 08/08/2022