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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH
TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great
Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the
main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas
during the late afternoon to early evening.

...Synopsis...
Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and
gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may
acco*pany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central
TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow
near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday.

...South TX to coastal LA...
An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across
portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real
estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect
coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been
added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along
and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its
spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral
mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where
the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample
buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective
shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat
initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will
support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage
of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind
threat across the coastal plain.

...Central/eastern OK into north TX...
Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence,
12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing
southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north
TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of
destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of
extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level
lapse rates acco*panying the low and greater boundary-layer heating
in its vicinity tomorrow co*pared to today, a threat for at least
isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For
now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk.

..Grams.. 05/06/2025