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Mesoscale Discussion 0512
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Areas affected...North-central North Dakota into northwest Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 171825Z - 172230Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snowfall rates up to 1-2 inches/hour are
likely within a snow band across northern North Dakota into
northwest Minnesota over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest reflectivity trends from KMBX and KMVX show a
broad, periodically intense, snow band ongoing across north-central
ND into the Red River Valley. This activity is being driven by
favorable overlap of ascent ahead of a shortwave trough, broad
isentropic lift in the 850-700 mb layer, and deformation near 700 mb
to the north of the low. Forecast soundings continue to show lift
within the DGZ that is favorable for periods of moderate to heavy
snow. This idea is supported by recent surface observations and web
cams which show limited visibility (down to 1/2 mile) amid modest
15-20 mph winds, indicative of moderate to heavy snowfall rates.
These conditions are expected to persist for the next several hours
as mesoscale forcing gradually translates east in tandem with the
upper wave. Latest RAP mesosanalysis shows stronger frontogenetical
forcing is largely displaced to the south of the wave, and recent
model guidance suggests any appreciable frontogenesis across the
Dakotas into MN will be minimal. As such, confidence in the duration
of heavy snowfall rates will diminish through the afternoon, but
periods of 1-2 inch/hour rates will remain possible.

..Moore.. 04/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48480174 48760123 49030025 49049857 49049746 48909667
            48389586 47669552 47089549 46559553 46349603 46509673
            47149738 47599788 47859844 48059913 48090001 48040063
            47890137 47840175 48040185 48250175 48480174