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Mesoscale Discussion 0511
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Areas affected...South-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 171751Z - 171945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop in the
co*ing hours along a cold front across south-central Texas. A
favorable kinematic environment will support the potential for
supercells with large to very large hail.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES-16 visible imagery reveals the location of
the surface cold front as it continues to push southeast into TX. A
couple of weak thunderstorms have already initiated off this
boundary, but have struggled to mature, quickly beco*ing displaced
into the cool air to the north. The anemic nature to the prior
convection is likely attributable to lingering mixed-layer
inhibition, which is gradually diminishing as temperatures continue
to slowly warm into the low to mid 80s where skies are mostly clear.
Additional cumulus towers are noted along the front in latest
visible and IR imagery, suggesting the probability for sustained
thunderstorms continues to increase. Storms will likely intensify
further in the co*ing hours as they move southeast into an air mass
with richer boundary layer moisture (denoted by low 70s dewpoints).
Parcel trajectories will likely deepen as cells encounter this air
mass, allowing for better realization of the elongated wind profiles
over the region. Nearly straight hodographs will support supercell
structures with eventual storm splits. The co*bination of moderate
instability and strong effective bulk wind shear (40-50 knots) will
support the potential for severe hail (possibly up to 2 inches in
diameter) and damaging winds. Trends will continue to be monitored,
and a watch will likely be needed as soon as sufficient storm
coverage beco*es apparent.

..Moore/Hart.. 04/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30380021 30929992 30949941 31039876 31239791 31379754
            30889697 30159711 29489749 28989835 28759911 28819991
            29200023 29670036 30030037 30380021