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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms appear unlikely across the CONUS on Monday.

...Discussion...
A shortwave trough will move quickly across the upper Great Lakes
during the day and toward ME by 12Z Tuesday, with midlevel winds
averaging 40-50 kt. At the surface, low pressure will move from
Lower MI into southwest ON through 00Z, with a cold front trailing
southwest into the mid MS Valley and toward the KS/OK area. Ample
low-level moisture will exist ahead of this front with upper 60s to
lower 70s F dewpoints, but warm temperature aloft will limit CAPE.

Scattered storms may be ongoing Monday morning over Lower MI ahead
of the midlevel wave, and where lift will be strongest near the low.
Forecast soundings reveal poor lapse rates aloft, though 40 kt 850
mb winds could aid sub-severe gust potential. Otherwise, scattered
daytime storms are expected to form along the length of the front
from southern Lower MI into the Ozarks, and extending westward
across OK. Shear will be very weak south of the main wave which will
shift into Canada, and given poor lapse rates aloft, severe
potential appears limited.

Elsewhere, other sporadic storms will be possible from PA into NY
and parts of southern New England, but both shear and instability
will be limited in this region with the stronger flow well to the
north.

..Jewell.. 08/07/2022