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Mesoscale Discussion 1656
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022

Areas affected...Central into northeast SD...Southeast
ND...Northwest MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 052057Z - 052300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated
hail are expected to develop by early evening. Watch issuance is
possible.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating is underway this afternoon along and
ahead of a surface boundary draped from southwest SD into northwest
MN. Some increase in boundary-layer cumulus has been noted over the
last hour across parts of central/southwest SD and also across
southeast ND, and continued heating will result in decreasing MLCINH
and an increasing potential for storm development along the boundary
by late this afternoon or early evening. 

Once storms develop, MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg will support
vigorous updrafts. This region is on the southern fringe of stronger
midlevel flow, with effective shear generally expected in the 30-40
kt range (greater with northward extent) by early evening. Initial
storm development may occur within the very hot environment across
SD, where the thermodynamic environment will be favorable for severe
wind gusts with any stronger clusters, along with some potential for
isolated hail. Development is also eventually expected into
southeast ND and northwest MN, where somewhat stronger deep-layer
shear will support a conditional supercell risk, with a threat of
hail, locally severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado. 

Given the threats described above, issuance of one or more watches
is possible across the region by early evening.

..Dean/Hart.. 08/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   43310057 43140162 43060239 44410165 45500016 46429853
            47239736 48269550 48249444 47989396 47549476 46589609
            46089666 45299775 44109878 43479949 43310057