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Mesoscale Discussion 1655
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022

Areas affected...southeast and eastern VA...MD...DE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 051837Z - 052030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered gusts primarily ranging from
45-60 mph are possible with the stronger storms.  The wet
microbursts will be capable of isolated pockets of wind damage.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows convective initiation
has recently ensued across southeast VA and it beco*ing imminent
southeast of D.C. as of 230 EDT.  Surface conditions are very warm
and humid with temperatures rising into the lower 90s with mid-upper
70s dewpoints.  Modifying forecast soundings indicates around 3000
J/kg MLCAPE is located over eastern VA northward through the
Chesapeake Bay/Delmarva vicinity.  The ample buoyancy and high PW (2
inches) amid a weak wind profile supports a pulse-thunderstorm
threat this afternoon into the early evening.  Strong to locally
severe gusts (45-60 mph) are probable with the stronger wet
microbursts, and localized pockets of wind damage will likely
acco*pany these stronger gusts.  Small to marginally severe hail
(0.5 to 1.0 inch in diameter) may occur with the stronger updraft
pulses through the late afternoon.

..Smith/Hart.. 08/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   37377859 39427699 39347590 38777510 38407508 37797547
            36587668 36427791 36677856 37377859