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Mesoscale Discussion 1654
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022

Areas affected...southwest and western VA...southeast WV...northeast
TN...northwest NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 051711Z - 051915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated gusts 45-60 mph are possible and these gusts will
likely be capable of localized pockets of wind damage.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows thunderstorms
developing over the past hour near the ridge tops of the
Appalachians.  Surface conditions show temperatures warming through
the upper 80s in the low elevations with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
Continued heating will further steepen low-level lapse rates as
temperatures warm into the 90s.  

NAM forecast soundings indicate 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE is present
over southwest and western VA and surrounding states.  This buoyancy
magnitude appears to be adequately depicted based on midday surface
observations co*pared to the RAP-based SPC Objective Analysis
(1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE).  With PW 1.75 to 2 inches, ample
water-loading potential is evident.  The steepening of 0-3 km lapse
rates in excess of 8 deg C/km will favor strong gust potential.  A
weak tropospheric wind profile will favor slow-moving, pulse-like
storms.  Isolated to widely scattered strong gusts 45-55 mph are
probable with the stronger cores (locally up to around 60 mph) with
pockets of wind damage the likely result.

..Smith/Hart.. 08/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   36938205 37788098 39397883 39407824 39127786 38637788
            37007916 35788167 35838209 36188227 36938205