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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF OKLAHOMA INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...Synopsis...
---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with
a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains
tomorrow (Friday)---

A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak
will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon,
supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over
Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the
boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very
strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem
with a strong isallobaric-driven co*ponent of surface flow, will
support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern
High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very
dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry
fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for
several hours Friday afternoon.

...Southern Plains...
By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central
Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the
dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph
sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will beco*e
co*mon across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of
Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical
highlights have been introduced.

Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly
surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern
Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet
max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface
winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at
least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile
co*bination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may
promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire
outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful
rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH
only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the
anomalously strong wind field should co*pensate to support dangerous
wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely
Critical highlights.

..Squitieri.. 03/13/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...