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Mesoscale Discussion 0122
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025

Areas affected...parts of southwest OK and western north TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15...

Valid 022145Z - 022315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated hail, strong gusts, and possibly
a tornado will continue through late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An arc of thunderstorms is ongoing late this afternoon
from southwest OK into western north TX, immediately in advance of a
co*pact cyclone moving across the TX Panhandle and South Plains.
Earlier small supercells have evolved into a more disorganized
linear structure, and limited buoyancy (with MLCAPE generally 500
J/kg or less) may continue to limit the magnitude of the severe
threat. However, low-level and deep-layer shear remain supportive of
organized convection, and redevelopment of a small supercell or two
and/or small bowing segments remain possible as the co*pact cyclone
moves across the region through the late afternoon.

Despite the meager buoyancy, cold temperatures aloft will support an
isolated hail threat with the strongest cells. Localized strong to
severe gusts will also be possible, especially if any small bowing
segments can materialize, or if storms can develop farther south
into a somewhat warmer and more unstable airmass across western
north TX. A tornado also cannot be ruled out, if a supercell can
favorably interact with low-level vorticity near a baroclinic zone
located near and just south of the Red River. 

Stronger convection may eventually spread eastward into a larger
portion of southwest OK and western north TX. While instability will
generally weaken with eastward extent, strong ascent and favorable
deep-layer shear may continue to support occasionally organized
convection through late afternoon into the early evening.

..Dean.. 03/02/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   35469994 35589956 35499890 35069856 34039839 33519850
            33299872 33259906 33249944 33349971 33639987 34109984
            34429980 35469994