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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 101200Z

An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting
in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions
later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains.

...Day 3/Tuesday...
A high-amplitude upper-level trough positioned over the
south-central CONUS will shift east throughout the day. A mid-level
jet will acco*pany this feature, with embedded 100+ kt mid-level
flow. Diurnally driven mixing will allow for a broad region of
enhanced westerly surface winds to develop across the Southern
Plains, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 45-50+ mph.
RH values will fall into the teens over most of this region, with
single digit values likely with southward extent. Thus, 70%
probabilities have been maintained, with some expansion made into
Southwest/South-Central Texas. Localized Extremely Critical
conditions may be possible for portions of the region, though
details on placement remain somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the
zone of enhanced winds/RH may extend into portions of eastern Texas
for a few hours late in the day, however, fuels in this region
appear less receptive to large-fire spread, precluding any further
expansion of probabilities at this time.

...Day 5/Thursday...
Another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast and de-amplify
with time while merging with the aforementioned Day 3 trough that
will be positioned along the East Coast. Consequently, enhanced
mid-level flow will begin overspreading the Southern Plains on
Thursday, with lee cyclogenesis co*mencing during the afternoon.
These factors should produce a broad region of enhanced surface
winds and lowered RH over the southern High Plains. Enough agreement
exists in medium-range guidance to introduce 70% probabilities for
the region, confined to an area with the most agreement. Only slight
adjustments were made to the 40% probabilities.

...Day 6/Friday...
Another broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH should
develop across the Southern Plains as the remainder of the
upper-level trough propagates through the region. Medium-range
guidance continues to show less agreement, but enough to warrant
maintaining the 40% probabilities at this time.

...Day 7/Saturday...
As the upper-level trough exits the Southern Plains region, strong
post-frontal winds may produce fire-weather conditions for parts of
the region. However, the strength and placement of these features
remain too uncertain to introduce any probabilities at this time.

..Karstens.. 03/02/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...