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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible from the eastern Texas
Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this
afternoon and early evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts should
be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible.

...20z Update...
The latest surface analysis and satellite imagery show an arc of
low-topped convection developing along a convergent dryline within
the clear slot of the strong upper low ejecting eastward over the
southern Plains. Recent surface obs show moisture increasing into
the low to mid 50s F from roughly Childress, TX eastward into far
southwestern OK and south to Interstate 20. Roughly 250-500 J/kg of
MUCAPE is expected within a confined warm sector from the
southeastern TX panhandle to the Red River vicinity of western north
TX and southwest OK. Despite limited surface moisture, convection
should intensify and strong veering wind profiles may support a few
supercells. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will favor a risk
for damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms. Large
low-level buoyancy (0-3km MUCAPE of 75-150 J/kg), ample vertical
vorticity and strong shear could also support a couple of tornadoes.
Contingent upon storms remaining semi discrete, this may occur
within a localized corridor near the surface warm front over the
southeastern TX Panhandle to far southwest OK and western north TX,
where shear and surface moisture are maximized. Have extended the
MRGL south where convection is developing along the dryline near
I-20. Have also shifted the SLGT southward toward the deeper
moisture and stronger buoyancy. See MCD#0121 and the prior outlook
for additional details.

..Lyons.. 03/02/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/

...Southern High Plains...
Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of
the TX Panhandle and northwest TX, as an upper low continues
eastward over the southern High Plains. This activity may pose an
isolated small hail risk in the short term with weak MUCAPE present,
but greater severe potential remains evident later this afternoon
and early evening. A very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level westerly jet
is present in the base of the mid/upper-level low. Strong
large-scale ascent associated with the left exit region of this jet
will overspread the TX Panhandle/northwest TX and parts of western
OK by this afternoon, encouraging robust thunderstorm development by
20-21Z. This activity will likely form along or just east of a weak
surface low and attendant dryline that will be present over the
eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX.

The primary limiting factor for the severe threat across this region
still appears to be rather modest low-level moisture, with latest
surface observations showing low to mid 50s surface dewpoints
confined well south to parts of central/south TX. Even so, there is
a chance for modest moistening though this afternoon, as ongoing
elevated precipitation may help saturate low/mid levels to some
extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to quickly steepen
through the day as the upper low moves eastward, and as cold
mid-level temperatures gradually overspread the narrow warm sector.
There may be a small/mesoscale corridor of greater severe threat
this afternoon/early evening across southwest OK/western north TX
and vicinity, where greater low-level heating appears possible
behind the morning activity, and where somewhat better low-level
moisture and related instability should be present.

Current expectations are for the afternoon/early evening convection
to pose a threat for mainly large hail and severe/damaging winds, as
favorable lapse rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear support
supercell structures initially. But, there is some veer-back-veer
signal in the 2-5 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings,
and convection may grow into a small bowing cluster fairly quickly
(as shown by several hr** members). The severe threat will likely be
limited in space and time by the narrow/small warm sector, with a
more isolated/limited severe threat with eastward extent into
central OK and north-central TX this evening due to weaker
instability. Finally, the tornado potential remains a bit unclear,
as low-level moisture will be quite limited. Still, a small zone of
sufficient 0-3 km CAPE and ambient boundary-layer vorticity along
the northward-developing warm front may support a couple of
tornadoes given otherwise favorable low-level shear.