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Mesoscale Discussion 0121
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK
and western north TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 021914Z - 022145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may develop this afternoon, with a
threat of hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or
two.

DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating is underway across parts of the TX
South Plains and southeast TX Panhandle, in the wake of elevated
convection that is moving into southwest OK and western north TX.
Differential heating is sharpening a low-level baroclinic zone
extending east-southeast of a deep-layer cyclone moving out of
east-central New Mexico. Convective initiation is underway near the
dryline east/southeast of Lubbock, and additional thunderstorm
development is expected this afternoon as strong ascent overspreads
the region. 

Low-level moisture remains rather limited, but mid/upper 40s F
dewpoints (locally higher) will be sufficient to support MLCAPE
increasing to near 500 J/kg with continued heating and cold
temperatures aloft. Deep-layer shear is more than sufficient for
organized convection, with the relatively limited buoyancy providing
the primary uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe threat
this afternoon. However, given the strong forcing, an arc of
convection with one or more small embedded supercells may develop
with time this afternoon and move northeastward, posing a risk of
hail and localized strong to severe gusts. 

Some threat for a tornado may also evolve with time, especially with
any supercells in the vicinity of the warm-frontal zone, where
locally higher dewpoints (in the low 50s F) and a relatively
favorable overlap of low-level instability and vorticity will
reside. While the magnitude of the threat remains uncertain, watch
issuance is possible if development of multiple severe storms
appears imminent.

..Dean/Gleason.. 03/02/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   32870047 33140052 33540062 33930086 34400142 34460141
            35030124 35160074 35159978 34799910 33649894 33299957
            33129995 32870047